In the recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for Caltrava claims that the city budget should be rearranged because of decreasing birth rate. His recommendation sounds plausible, however, the lack of specific evidence weakens logical support for his recommendation.

First of all, he assumes that the number of students will decrease because of the low birthrate. However, since there might be students who are coming from other cities or countries and in such case, the total number of students would not decrease. Also, the reason for decreasing number of students in a public school might have caused by a private school in the city, while he mentioned only about public schools. Thus, the author needs to suggest evidence to show that most of the students in public schools are from Calatrava and the private schools have the same issue.

Secondly, the author recommended that the funds budget for athletic playing fields and recreational facilities so that more budgets are used for the growing number of adult population. Here we can see he assumes that recreational or athletic budgets are for minors, however, this budget is not only for young populations. Since more and more adults are aware of the importance of physical activities and sports and concern about it, reducing the budget which might be also used for adults does not sound cogent. Thus, he needs to show the evidence that the budget for athletic playing fields and recreational facilities are not supposed to be used by adults and not a great number of adults are benefited by the budget.

Lastly the author claims to reduce a ten-year budgets for young generation, assuming that the decreasing birthrate will be continues. The evidence of his deduction, however, is too weak to persuade readers. He compared the last year's birthrate to five years ago. Yet, since the birthrate could be changed by socio-economic situation, we need to consider whether there are other reasons of decreasing birthrate. If the phenomenon is not a long-running situation, cutting out of budgets for young generation might bring side effects. Thus, he need to show more strong evidence to confirm that the phenomenon is on-going and long term issue.

In general, even though the author's recommendations about budget plan sound persuading, the lack of evidential support weaken his statement. More specific evidence with deep consideration about the whole society would make his recommendation stronger and more cogent.